• What’s moving: Recent public polling shows high volatility among independents and suburban persuadables, with soft support tied to cost-of-living, safety, and schools. National branding isn’t converting to New York votes.
• What it means: The lane to win isn’t ideology — it’s execution credibility. Voters reward concrete fixes they can see on a dashboard: fares, power, taxes, safety, and housing.
• Why we benefit: Our agenda is built for cross-pressured voters: R3A regulatory clocks, Nuclear NY power costs down, MTA fair-fares, homestead protection, crime + rehab dual-track.

• NYC: Must hit ~25–30% by speaking cost-of-living, safety, transit, and housing to outer-borough families.
• Suburbs (LI/Westchester/Rockland): Win by ~10 points on property-tax stability, schools, commute reliability, and clean contracting.
• Upstate: 65–70% with energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and main-street capital.

Elise Stefanik has a powerful Washington résumé — leadership titles, TV time, and national name ID. But New York isn’t choosing a cable-news guest; it’s choosing a governor who has to win NYC, suburbs, and upstate at the same time.

• Establishment candidate, not people’s candidate: Her early launch was immediately wrapped in insider endorsements and flattering national coverage — long on narrative, short on New York–specific fixes.
• Upstate strength, suburban & city ceiling: Her brand plays with a slice of the base, but turns off the suburban women, independents, and outer-borough voters you need to win statewide.
• Nine years, same New York problems: After nearly a decade in Congress, New York is still unaffordable, rural hospitals are on the brink, and families are being priced out. The résumé grew — the results at home did not.

Elise Stefanik is boasting that, within days of launching, she secured endorsements from 73% of GOP county chairs, over 50% of Conservative Party chairs, multiple county executives, and the old guard of the New York political class.

If those numbers are accurate, they don’t tell the story she thinks they do. They tell a very different one:

• 1. She’s the candidate of the political establishment — not the people.
  When almost every county chair jumps on board immediately, that’s not organic momentum — that’s coordination. It’s what happens when the political class tries to lock in the outcome before voters ever get a say.
  
  New Yorkers didn’t endorse her. Party insiders did. And for more than 20 years, New York has been rejecting the statewide candidates those insiders pick.
• 2. It shows who she works for — and who she would owe.
  Endorsements from county chairs, party officials, and former governors come with expectations. They expect influence, appointments, and the same old system to continue.
  
  A campaign that starts this deep in establishment backing is a campaign that will govern for insiders. New York doesn’t need another governor who owes the machine. It needs one who owes the people.
• 3. It’s the same playbook that’s been losing since 2002.
  The GOP hasn’t won a statewide race here since 2002. We’ve seen this movie before:
  Rob Astorino. Marc Molinaro. Lee Zeldin. All backed early. All “unified” by the party. All lost to the same machine they claimed they could beat. These endorsements are déjà vu — not destiny.
• 4. It shows a ceiling, not a surge.
  If their internal numbers showed her blowing the race open, they wouldn’t need to wave around endorsement spreadsheets. They’d let the polling speak for itself.
  
  Instead, they stack endorsements because they know her support with actual voters is softer than her posts make it sound. Endorsements ≠ enthusiasm. Endorsements ≠ votes. In New York, they rarely even predict the primary — much less the general.
• 5. It sets up the real contrast: insiders vs. real New Yorkers.
  Let Elise run as the candidate of the establishment. We’re running as the campaign for the working class, independents, forgotten counties, and families who feel ignored by Albany.
  
  She has county chairs. We have New Yorkers who want a real change — not another pre-packaged politician.
• 6. And here’s the cut that matters most:
  If her momentum were truly unstoppable, the establishment wouldn’t need to sell it this hard. When a campaign starts with 73% of the party machine behind it, it’s not a sign of strength — it’s a sign of fear.
  
  Fear of losing control. Fear of a true outsider catching fire. Fear of New Yorkers getting a real choice.

A new poll from J.L. Partners is being pushed to claim Kathy Hochul leads Elise Stefanik 46% to 43% — a so-called “statistical tie” and proof she’s “winning independents.” On paper it looks close. In practice, it looks like narrative-making, not truth-telling.

• 1. It leans on the same voters who always back the status quo.
  Polls like this tend to lean heavily on habitual, establishment-friendly voters. When you front-load “safe respondents,” you get safe, predictable results — convenient for the people trying to protect certain names.
• 2. It measures habit and name recognition — not enthusiasm.
  Elise’s national persona has outgrown her in-state enthusiasm. This poll mostly captures who has heard her name before — not who is ready to trust her with their mortgage, rent, commute, or kids’ futures.
• 3. It sidelines the bloc that actually decides New York.
  New York elections are decided by independents, moderates, and non-aligned voters. Any poll that underweights or flattens them doesn’t reflect how this state really moves — it reflects what insiders wish were true.
• 4. It pretends Republicans are fully unified behind her — they aren’t.
  The NYGOP establishment wants the story to be “everyone is lining up, it’s already decided.” The reality on the ground is different: county committees, grassroots organizers, and longtime GOP voters are divided. Many see her as a DC ladder-climber, not a New York problem-solver.
• 5. It tries to sell “almost losing to Hochul” as a show of strength.
  A Republican at 43% against a deeply unpopular sitting governor is not a flex — it’s a ceiling. Everyone in Albany knows that. Trying to spin “almost losing” as momentum is the kind of math that has kept the party out of statewide power since 2002.
• 6. It’s a narrative tool more than a measurement tool.
  This is the old playbook: promote flattering early polls, declare a “front-runner,” dominate fundraising and media, and push everyone else to stand down. It’s politics, not truth. New Yorkers deserve better than manufactured inevitability.
• 7. Even with a friendly poll, she’s still losing.
  If the establishment truly believed she was the strongest candidate, they wouldn’t need to lean on selective surveys. They’d let all the numbers speak for themselves. They don’t. So they curate the story instead.

This isn’t about denying she has a record. It’s about being honest about what that record actually means for New Yorkers.

• 1. Big DC résumé, little relief at home.
  Elise has been in Congress since 2015, rose to the #4 GOP leadership spot, and has sponsored or co-sponsored thousands of bills. That’s a powerful Washington biography — but New York is still unaffordable, and the people she represents still struggle with hospitals, housing, and basic costs.
• 2. Earmarks are the minimum job requirement.
  She’s brought home federal funds and local projects — the kind of earmarks every member of Congress is expected to deliver. Acknowledged. But that’s the starting line, not the finish line. What she hasn’t done is fix the big picture: cost of living, tax burden, housing, and rural collapse.
• 3. Populist branding vs. cutting the programs her district relies on.
  She markets herself as a fighter for the North Country, but voted for giant omnibus bills that trim programs like SNAP and Medicaid — lifelines in poorer, rural districts. You can’t champion working families while voting to squeeze the exact people you represent.
• 4. Immigration as a talking point, not a durable fix.
  Her immigration voting record is hard-line and made for TV. Border security matters — but New Yorkers also need stable labor for farms, small businesses, and local services. We need serious reform, not permanent campaign content.
• 5. Health and COVID: slogans over solutions.
  She has supported bipartisan health and veteran bills. But when COVID hit, she leaned hard into branding — “FIRE FAUCI” posts and anti-mandate headlines — instead of leading a serious conversation about rural hospitals, ICU capacity, and long-term health resilience in New York.
• 6. Democracy and 2020: tried to relitigate an election instead of fixing New York.
  Elise echoed unproven fraud claims after 2020, backed lawsuits aiming to overturn certified results, and aligned herself tightly with Stop-the-Steal narratives. That’s time and energy that could have gone into tackling New York’s affordability crisis instead.
  
  If you want a governor who will protect democracy in New York, you don’t promote someone whose record includes trying to undo an election at the federal level.
• 7. Culture wars and replacement rhetoric that divide instead of solve.
  From ads flirting with “replacement theory” framing to turning campus antisemitism hearings into national TV showdowns, she has repeatedly chosen to heat up culture wars instead of cooling them down. Serious issues like antisemitism and racism deserve better than being turned into permanent campaign content.
• 8. Foreign-policy auditions while New York falls behind.
  Talk of UN posts, high-profile foreign speeches, and hard-line positions abroad may impress DC, but New Yorkers need someone focused on our economy, our schools, and our streets — not the next rung on the ladder in Washington.
• 9. Missing from her own district.
  She hasn’t held a traditional in-person town hall in years, even as her district has fought through hospital closures, trade shocks, and inflation. If a representative won’t consistently show up and take questions at home, why should New Yorkers believe she’ll show up for them as governor?

Our contrast is simple: I’m not running to climb the DC ladder. I’m running to make New York affordable, safe, and livable again — with real plans on the page and clocks the public can see.